Many years ago when I lived in Maidstone, I predicted that eventually there would be one operator in the town. This was prior to deregulation and it was my view then (I think it was 1982) that it would be Maidstone & District. This of course eventually came to pass, although it was commercial pressures that saw off the former municipal operator rather than logic.
Having lived in Colchester for the best part of a year, I would make a similar prediction here. I would hesitate to say that there will be only one operator as some of the 'independents' such as Chambers and Hedingham have something of a niche market. However, of the major players (First and Arriva), I believe that only one will survive.
I'll stick my neck out now and say that I believe Arriva are not long for this world. Well, not long for Colchester anyway. I think there is good evidence for this, apart from their predilection to lock their buses up on Sundays (covered in a previous diary).
Arriva (in my view) do not have a particularly good spread of services in Colchester to make continued operations worthwhile. Like Maidstone Borough Council, their services are largely confined to Colchester borough - mainly the urban area. The fleet is looking increasing decrepit, with older buses being drafted in from elsewhere in the Arriva empire (including a batch of shabby Metrobuses from London).
Colchester is also at least 30 miles from the nearest Arriva neighbour (Southend) - the Arriva operations here are a tiny island in a sea of First Group operations. The logical step would be to sell out to First, who seem far more interested in developing services than the blue guys. Arriva have pulled out of larger towns of course (Crawley springs to mind) and it may be the time is not far off when the gates at Magdalen Street are locked for good.
Remember - you read it here First!